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AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 revenue was $599.3M, down 11.7% YoY; Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) rose 28.8% YoY to $129.2M with a 22% margin; GAAP diluted EPS was $(6.38) due to non-cash impairments, while Adjusted EPS was $0.64 .
  • Management raised its two-year cumulative free cash flow outlook to approximately $550M for 2024–2025 (from “approximately half a billion” previously) on the back of $331M FY24 FCF; Q4 FCF was $37.6M .
  • 2025 guide: consolidated revenue ~$2.3B (~5% YoY decline), AOI $400–$420M, ~low-to-mid-teens streaming revenue growth offsetting linear pressure, domestic advertising down ~10%, and content licensing ~$250M; cumulative FCF target implies ~$220M FCF in 2025 .
  • Strategic catalysts: Netflix AMC Collection driving awareness and AMC+ acquisition, Charter bundling AMC+ at no additional cost, expanded FAST distribution (19 brands/136 feeds), and launch of AMCN Outcomes performance ad product .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • AOI improved: Q4 AOI rose to $129.2M (+28.8% YoY), with Domestic AOI +22.8% YoY to $151.7M, driven by cost management and streaming growth; margin held at 22% consolidated and 29% domestic .
  • Streaming momentum: Domestic streaming revenue was $156M (+8% YoY) and subscribers increased to 12.4M (+8% YoY; +5% sequential), supported by pricing and partnerships; Netflix exposure boosted AMC+ acquisition for current seasons .
  • Advertising innovation: AMCN Outcomes launched to provide real-time campaign attribution, with robust digital ad growth and plans to add an ad-supported Shudder tier later in 2025 .

What Went Wrong

  • Linear headwinds: Net revenues fell 11.7% YoY; domestic affiliate revenues declined ~13% amid subscriber declines and rate resets; domestic advertising fell 12% in Q4 with management guiding another ~10% decline in 2025 .
  • GAAP losses from impairments: Q4 operating loss was $(254.2)M due to $302.7M of impairments and $43.0M of restructuring, driving GAAP diluted EPS to $(6.38) .
  • Free cash flow decelerated QoQ in Q4 (to $37.6M vs $53.9M in Q3) and was below Q4 2023 ($65.97M), reflecting working capital dynamics and restructuring cash uses; FY24 FCF was strong at $330.8M .

Financial Results

Consolidated Summary (Quarterly)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$625.934 $599.614 $599.305
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$10.788 $93.653 $(254.219)
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$152.807 $131.476 $129.166
AOI Margin (%)24% 22% 22%
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$(0.66) $0.76 $(6.38)
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.24 $0.91 $0.64
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$95.165 $53.941 $37.585

Year-over-Year Snapshot (Q4)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024YoY Change
Revenue ($USD Millions)$678.848 $599.305 (11.7)%
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(11.443) $(254.219) n/m
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$100.296 $129.166 +28.8%
AOI Margin (%)—22% —
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$(0.50) $(6.38) n/m
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.72 $0.64 (11.1)%
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$65.965 $37.585 (43.0)%

Segment Net Revenues and AOI (Quarterly)

Segment MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Domestic Net Revenues ($USD Millions)$538.291 $530.243 $520.229
International Net Revenues ($USD Millions)$90.095 $73.706 $85.622
Inter-segment Eliminations ($USD Millions)$(2.452) $(4.335) $(6.546)
Domestic AOI ($USD Millions)$155.348 $150.189 $151.723
International AOI ($USD Millions)$29.265 $13.542 $8.698
Corporate/Elims AOI ($USD Millions)$(31.806) $(32.255) $(31.255)

KPIs (Domestic)

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Streaming Subscribers (Millions)11.6 11.8 12.4
Streaming Revenues ($USD Millions)$150 $152 $156
Content Licensing Revenues ($USD Millions)$67 $81 $67
Advertising Revenues ($USD Millions)$149 $133 $139

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cumulative Free Cash Flow2024–2025“~half a billion dollars” “~$550M” Raised
Free Cash FlowFY 2025—~$220M (implied) New
Consolidated RevenueFY 2025—~$2.3B (~5% YoY decline) New
Adjusted Operating IncomeFY 2025—$400–$420M New
Domestic Subscription RevenueFY 2025—Flat YoY New
Domestic Advertising RevenueFY 2025—~10% YoY decline New
Domestic Content LicensingFY 2025—~$250M New
International RevenueFY 2025—$290–$300M New
International AOI HeadwindFY 2025—~$15M from Movistar nonrenewal New
Technical & Operating ExpensesFY 2025—Increase YoY; programming amortization declines (timing), duplicate tech outsourcing costs New
SG&AFY 2025—Increase YoY (streaming marketing focused on retention) New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Licensing partnerships (Netflix)Branded licensing deal with Netflix; curated prior seasons of 15 AMC shows Launched 13-series AMC Collection on Netflix; boosted AMC+ acquisition for new seasons Netflix exposure drives AMC+ sign-ups; The Ones Who Live hit Netflix Top 10 quickly Strengthening reach and funnel to AMC+
Affiliate/distribution (Charter, MVPDs)Participation in skinny bundles; Optimum; UK Sky deal Early renewal with Charter; AMC+ bundled at no additional cost to Charter video customers Charter bundle “baked into” guidance starting Q1; multiyear renewals with Charter, Cox, Verizon Expanding bundled reach; retention focus
FAST channelsITVX launches (AMC Stories, AMC Reality) 15 AMC FAST channels launched on Amazon platforms 19 FAST brands on 12 platforms; 136 active feeds Accelerating distribution scale
Advertising innovation—Cross-platform programmatic; AMC+ ad-supported added to solutions Launch of AMCN Outcomes (real-time attribution); ad-supported Shudder planned Product-led data/targeting momentum
Streaming pricing and retentionPrice increases at Acorn/HIDIVE; minimal churn impact Bundles (MGM+ exchange); Netflix halo Retention-focused marketing; lower churn; unit volume and price actions driving growth Improving quality of subs and revenue
Balance sheet/financingConvertible notes; repurchased 2029 notes; strong cash BBC America JV acquired; leverage ~3.0x No maturities until 2029; ~$1B liquidity; net leverage 2.8x De-risked maturities; ample liquidity

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We achieved our full-year guidance across all key financial metrics, including generating healthy free cash flow of $331 million. We are increasing our expectations to approximately $550 million of cumulative free cash flow over the '24/'25 two-year period.” .
  • CEO on strategy: “Our size, nimbleness and independence allow us to move quickly to create new opportunities… building on success with Netflix and partnerships… to expand our targeting capabilities to differentiate our advertising business.” .
  • CFO: “We expect consolidated AOI for the full year to be in the range of $400 million to $420 million” and consolidated revenue to decline ~5% to ~$2.3B in 2025; streaming revenue growth low-to-mid-teens; domestic ad revenue down ~10% .
  • CCO: “We launched Outcomes… allowing advertisers to see campaign outcomes and optimize delivery in real time,” part of seamless buying, data targeting, and cross-platform packaging initiatives .

Q&A Highlights

  • Free cash flow and programming spend: Efficiency (per-episode costs, cross-platform content sharing) drove 2024 cash programming below guidance; 2025 decline reflects timing and tax credit receipts; quality remains priority (international tax efficiencies leveraged) .
  • Streaming growth drivers: Bundles and Netflix licensing both contributed; lower churn across portfolio; Charter AMC+ bundle included in guidance starting Q1 .
  • Advertising mix: Linear challenged; digital ad revenue growing at double-digit rates; Outcomes and cross-platform offerings aim to narrow the gap long term .
  • Netflix halo effect: Prior seasons on Netflix increase AMC+ acquisition for current seasons; “Netflix effect” supports AMC+ subscriber growth .
  • Content licensing cadence: Studio primarily producing for AMC platforms; licensing remains accretive and guided at ~$250M in 2025 (vs. prior 2024 run-rate guide of $225M referenced by CFO) .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus estimates for Q4 2024 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) were unavailable at time of analysis due to an API rate limit. As a result, formal comparisons to Wall Street consensus are not included in this report. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global when accessible.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Despite a challenging linear backdrop, AMCX expanded AOI in Q4 and maintained ~22% AOI margins, signaling operational discipline and streaming-led resilience .
  • The raised two-year FCF outlook (~$550M) and implied ~$220M FCF for 2025 support balance sheet optionality (no bond maturities until 2029; ~$1B liquidity), a thesis anchor in a volatile media environment .
  • Streaming revenue growth (price and volume) and bundling (Charter, MGM+, Amazon, Roku) should offset some linear declines; monitor retention metrics and Charter activation in Q1 .
  • Advertising strategy is pivoting to data-driven, cross-platform solutions with Outcomes attribution; near-term, expect linear ad pressure but improving digital mix and Shudder ad tier later in 2025 .
  • Licensing provides a predictable revenue stream (~$250M 2025 guide); Netflix halo enhances franchise visibility and AMC+ funnel, supporting unit economics .
  • Watch international trends: 2025 international revenue $290–$300M with a ~$15M AOI headwind from Movistar nonrenewal; UK retro adjustments boosted 2024 numbers, normalizing in 2025 .
  • Trading setup: Potential catalysts include confirmation of Charter bundle impact, streaming growth outperformance vs guide, and stabilization of ad trends; risks include deeper linear declines and macro softness in entertainment ad markets .